The Germans and British duke it out again at sea, this time in the mine-laden seas close to Hamburg. Despite the rough seas forcing the two sides to engage at intermediate range instead of primary, it was immediately apparent that a majorly damaged battlecruiser would not be sufficient to give their destroyers cover. The encounter was cut off after two rounds, and despite sinking the Scheer, another German naval victory was assured at the cost of the HMS Repulse, the HMS Southampton, and two more destroyers.
Another crappy two weeks of weather seems to have closed the window on a German invasion, however. There was a 50% chance of decent enough weather for the two October turns, but in November the chances of seas calm enough to unload forces onto British beaches drops to 33%, and in December, 17%. Had the Germans started invasion planning after their first meetings about it in late May, there would have been a full month more of prep time.
Another factor working against the Germans was the lack of shipping available to mount and maintain an invasion. Some of it was sunk during the Norwegian invasion and the disastrous naval actions at the River Platte. As it stood, the Germans couldn't assemble enough to mount a realistic effort until late September, with the weather turning the very next turn.
The already-damaged HMS Rodney was sunk in the Channel this turn by Junkers 88A and Dornier 17Z bombers, while two destroyers were trying to sneak through the Dover straits by the coastal artillery at Calais.
In the British turn, the Germans sink an additional two ships, the HMS Cardiff and the HMS Coventry, but British subs sink 5 German destroyers and 2 torpedo boats, losses the Kriegsmarine can scarcely endure. This was done at the cost of a mere 3 British subs. This scuffle occurred in the Dover Straits; perhaps the Germans were feeling a bit invincible after their previous successes. It has since prompted the Germans to move their shipping from Calais to the Netherlands, indicating that they have abandoned the idea of a two-coast invasion (Kent and East Anglia). If the Germans deactivate their Junkers-52's in Paris in favor of additional bombers or fighters, it will be a strong indication that Operation Sea Lion has been canned permanently.
In the air, the British sought to rack up some points by terror bombing the Ruhr. In a word, ineffective. 2 victory points ineffective.
All in all, the British had their best turn to date, scoring a hefty 30 victory points, but the Germans notched 59. This brings their totals to 48 and 162, respectively, a 3:1 margin for the Germans, which would constitute a major victory.
What would be the historical ramifications of a major German victory in the Battle of Britain? The best the Germans could appear to hope for, barring invasion, would be to force Britain to sign an armistice, but it seems unlikely the British would have ever pursued this option, no matter how bad things got.
Still, the incredible losses the Royal Navy has suffered would have a disastrous effect on their already-strained ability to protect merchant shipping in the Atlantic. Bear in mind that the Germans were no longer bottled up in the North Sea thanks to victories over Norway and France.
The Americans, already declaring a national emergency in June 1940 to protect Western shipping, and aggressively pushing Lend Lease measures to the tune of 50 overage destroyers in September, could hardly be expected to stand by while the British slowly starved to death in isolation. Could Roosevelt push his country even harder toward war with the Germans? Or would the political resistance be too strong?
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